The population density of the region Centre is 64,36 inhabitants per km. On Sun AM (4/30) the gale was fading off Oregon with 30 kt northwest winds and seas 21 ft at 42.5N 134.5W aimed east targeting Central CA northward. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. A small started developing over the Northwestern Gulf on Wed AM (4/26) producing 35-40 kt west winds with seas building to 24 ft at 48N 166.75W aimed east. A south wind is expected in the morning across OC and San Diego, but it could be manageable. Target the mornings if youre planning on getting in the water, unless you can find a wind protected area. 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023. Within 360 nautical miles east of F1 from 50S 160E to 55S 162E: Areas of fog, heavy northwest swell. TUE NIGHT This feature requires a Premium Membership. This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020. El Nino is developing. Chance of showers. On Sunday (4/30) California was getting some background northwest swell mixed with fading southwest swell originating from a gale that developed southeast of New Zealand Tues-Wed (4/19) producing up to 39 ft seas aimed northeast. Select from the other forecast maps (on the right) to view the temperature, cloud cover, wind and precipitation for this country on a large scale with animation. The cut-off low mentioned above will pinch off from the jetstream by Monday morning and spin around SoCal for a few days. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 7 ft at 11 seconds. The area of the region Centre is 39 150,94 km . Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. The 30 day average was rising at -1.20 after falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. 205 PM PDT Fri Apr 28 2023. If this materializes, a long-period northwest swell arriving locally next Monday would result. Wind waves 2 ft or less. 30- to 40-knot winds reached down to Antarctica, blowing over 2000 . I would still recommend giving it a look this morning with all the swell in the water. Swell NW 6 ft. SW wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. The 6 departments of the region of Centre are: Cher (18), Eure-et-Loir (28), Indre (36), Indre-et-Loire (37), Loir-et-Cher (41), Loiret (45) Inhabitants of Centre were 2 440 329 in 1999 and 2 519 567 in 2006. Wind waves 2 ft or less Live Map. waves 2 ft or less. Please enable JavaScript to access the following map views: All map types that you can enable here: Pacific-Ocean Colour Base Map, Wave Height, Wave Energy, Pacific-Ocean Swell 1 Energy, Swell 2 Energy, Windwave Energy, Pacific-Ocean Precipitation, Wind, Temperature, Pacific-Ocean Cloud Cover. Building 3205 Wind waves 3 ft building to Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. 5 to 7 ft. WED NIGHT Fetch and seas fading quickly after that. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.2'. Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. These forecasts are prepared by the Ocean Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Honolulu Forecast Office, Juneau Forecast Office, Anchorage Forecast Office, and Fairbanks Forecast Office. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35-40 kts from the south with seas 34 ft at 55S 145.5W aimed northeast. Symbols shown on the map: Pacific-Ocean Surf Breaks, Tide Forecasts, Cities, Pacific-Ocean Ski Resorts, Live Wave Buoys, Live Webcams, Pacific-Ocean Wind Now, Temperature Now, Weather Now, Pacific-Ocean Swell at breaks, Rating at breaks. Please enable JavaScript to access the following map views: All map types that you can enable here: Global-Pacific Colour Base Map, Wave Height, Wave Energy, Global-Pacific Swell 1 Energy, Swell 2 Energy, Windwave Energy, Global-Pacific Precipitation, Wind, Temperature, Global-Pacific Cloud Cover. TAO Array: (2/24) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was retrograding to 168E. Gidy (French pronunciation:[idi]) is a commune in the Loiret department in north-central France. Summer - Waist to chest high. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. In the evening 45 kts west winds were pushing east with seas building to 30 ft over a tiny area at 45.5N 157E aimed east and a long ways from Hawaii. Warming was occurring off of Peru out to 130W. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. In the evening northwest winds were fading from 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 39.75N 168E approaching the dateline. Swell Direction: 315 & 340 degrees, North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height. 7 to 8 ft at 9 seconds. It seems the the peak of La Nina is behind us. As for rain: Since this low lacks a more predictable jetstream guidance, one has to choose from the widely disparate models to play weather-roulette for timing and amounts. Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is falling from 10,000 ft today forecast falling to 5,000 ft on 5/2 building to 6,700 ft on 5/3 and holding then rising on 5/8 to 10,500 ft on 5/9. Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 190 and 13 seconds from 290. Chevrerie and Cow La Petite Brosse. On Sat AM (4/29) south winds consolidated at 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 39.5S 147W aimed northeast. Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). A gale started developing in the Southwest Pacific on Tues AM (4/18) with 45-50 kt southwest winds and seas building. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at waist to chest high on the sets and clean and lined up but inconsistent and weak. MON N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Background swell was hitting Hawaii from undetermined source. Swell NW 5 ft. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling (which it is showing preliminary signs of doing). NW wind swell is becoming possible for the 10th-11th. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. Surf along south facing shores will ease today as a south swell that recently peaked moves out. Updated! The East Shore was thigh high and chopped with moderate east trades. TUE . midnight. Swell Direction: 192 degrees, North CA: Dribbles on Mon (5/1) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). W wind 10 ktbacking to SW. Wind waves 3 ft. Sea Level Anomalies: (4/23) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific connected to the East Pacific at +5-10 cms over the entirety of it's width with a pocket of +10 cms in the west and a pocket of +10-20 cms in the east extending north of Panama and south to Chile. 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023. Local Interest
The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/23 indicates a huge very warm stream of 3+ degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific east to 100W (leading edge of Kelvin Wave #2) and then upwards from there over the far East Pacific with +4 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #1 erupting there into Ecuador. Your heart knows the way. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. at 6:00 this morning were light and variable most everywhere. Important: JavaScript support must be turned on in order to use these animated swell maps. afternoon. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based. waves 3 ft in the eveningbecoming 2 ft or less. The 28 deg isotherm line was stalled at 159W today. Fetch was fading from 35 kts Wed AM (2/23) over a large area filling the West Pacific with seas fading from 31 ft at 35N 169.25E. But nothing to follow up north. Current Conditions
Residuals continue if not rebuilding slightly later Sat (5/6) at 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Local Interest
Chance of showers. Within Winds
At a glance:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/29) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. West facing breaks should run waist to chest high. SYNOPSIS FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. Although this particular swell will fade Saturday the 6th, southern hemi will give south facing spots their turn on the Pacific's wave machine. West Central North Atlantic continental shelf and slope waters. sgi_ord=Math.random()*10000000000000000;
This system was gone after that. Sunday the 7th, looks about chest max at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots. Warm temps continued west from there on the equator across the dateline and beyond. South facing breaks can expect waist to chest high wrap. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to continue marching east reaching 135W on Sun (2/27) or 600 nmiles west of Central CA with winds fading slowly to the 160 kt range but still with no troughs but still offering some support for gale development based on wind speeds alone. Fetch raced northeast in the evening at 35-40 kts with seas 24 ft at 52N 154W aimed east. Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Wind waves 2 ft or lessbecoming 3 to 4 ft. W swell (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days). S wind 5 to 10 ktbecoming 10 kt. Widespread The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. of showers through the day. Swell fading on Tues (3/1) from 6.4 ft @ 15 secs early (9.5 ft). Amazing. afternoon. Water temperatures are a warm 25 to 27C or 77 to 81F year-round. Saturday the 13th into Sunday the 14th will likely see the next southern hemi ground swell fill inmore on that in my next report. Wave forecast maps for Australia Bass Strait Bass Strait is a notorious stretch of water between Victoria and Tasmania. There are also options to display live wind observations from ships, wave buoys and weather stations on the wave maps in the Global-Pacific region. On Mon AM (2/28) winds to build to 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 42N 154.75W aimed east. Tuesday should see early AM onshores to 10 mph with a southerly element, and afternoon onshores 15-20 mph, also with a southerly element. Waikiki long range surf forecast for swell, wind, tide and weather conditions updated multiple times daily. Detailed Surf Reports, 16-day Surf Forecasts, Surf Photos, Live Winds, Tides and Weather | Swellnet Premium ad-free surfcams, dawn surf reports, forecaster notes, long range surf forecasts. Chance of showers. Surf Forecast:
They are to warm to -0.438 degrees in April, then rising to -0.026 degs in July and hovering near 0,0 degs after that. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. Long Range Forecast Mostly the same story as of late. Swell Direction: 208 moving to 198 degrees and shadowed by Tahiti. Surf is now declining back to tiny levels with just minor levels of background swell expected from tradewinds in the South Pacific- around a foot at the most exposed Burnett breaks, tiny elsewhere. Highs around 82 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. 0 (ft) View 2 day forecast. A gale developed tracking east off the Kuril Islands and pushed east to the dateline Fri-Sat (4/29) with up to 32 ft seas aimed east. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming. veering to W in the eveningbacking to SW after midnight. Level up to a Premium Membership to unlock 16-day forecasts and other useful forecasting tools. the afternoon, thenbecoming 2 ft or less. Multiple Weaker Gales to Follow. Tide levels
Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor has been running 58-59. Farms. N wind 10 to 20 kt. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts and lifting north with seas 31 ft at 45N 176W aimed east. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator and a clear El Nino signal is building. But there is no indication that El Nino will develop and if anything we'll fall into a weak steady state La Nina beyond. A few more like it are on the surf radar, and I'll get to those in a sec. 30- to 40-knot winds . In the evening 40 kt northwest winds are to be building off the Pacific Northwest with 27 ft seas at 43.5N 137.75.5W aimed east. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. Swell holding Sat (5/6) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). //-->, S. Hemi Waking Up
Swell holding Sun (5/7) at 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). A series of southern hemi ground swells are being tracked from the 10th through the 17th. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
Kelvin Wave #2 in Flight - Active MJO #3 Strong - Equatorial Sea Surface Temps Rising Fast
Fetch was fading Fri AM (4/28) from 35-40 kts from the south but stalling while building in coverage with 33 ft seas at 37S 156.5W aimed north. For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. Almost every morning looks to be the cleanest window of the day, so keep that in mind if youre trying to plan a surf. 5/6/22 5/12/22: Lots of swell on the way this week! Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Brookings southward, NW wind 10 to 15 kteasing to 5 to 10 kt Today's temps are rising again at +2.478 after dropping to +2.145 (4/25) having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Late in the weekend a trough of low pressure is expected to approach the region, bringing much cooler temps and increased onshore flow. Wednesday should see AM light and variables but with a southerly element, and then southerlies in the afternoon 10-15 mph. On Thurs AM (4/27) a gale started building just over and just off the Kuril Islands producing 45 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft at 44N 156E aimed east. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. Summer - up to waist high swell. More swell is looking likely out the back too, just nothing as big as what we are going to see this weekend. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. Then had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022. Oahu: Swell fading on Thurs AM (2/24) from 2.6 ft @ 12 secs early (3.0 ft). All the while, marine layer will be thick from a heavy onshore flow and very moist air. Sea Level Anomalies: (2/17) Sea heights were neutral over the Equatorial Pacific except one small area of -5 cms anomalies between 95W to 85W and losing coverage quickly. The degree of swell exposure, to storms from both the North and South Pacific mean year-round swell. Swell building Tues (5/2) into the mid-afternoon at 3.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (5.5 ft). : See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page). Check in on the forecast update: Southwest Pacific . Surface Analysis
W wind 5 kt. Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches. Wednesday the 10th into Thursday the 11th could see the next southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that should break off Antarctica in a few days (model by FNMOC): Size so far is coming in at chest+ with swell angled from 195 and periods 16 seconds. SW wind 5 ktbacking to SE after midnight. W wind 5 ktbacking to SW after midnight. Run in that direction. Taking the GFS and to some degree the ECMWF into account, I'd call for drizzle Monday morning along the coast; light rain sometime Tuesday morning from LA north (dry in OC and SD); then mostly dry Wednesday day, but with rain Wednesday late afternoon or evening into Thursday for most of SoCal, spreading from north to south. midnight. Best size for both of these swells will be Friday the 6th and Saturday the 7th. The North Pacific is looking slow in the longer range as expected, so focus is shifted towards the South Pacific now. Chance of showers. This model suggests a transition to El Nino. http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/30) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view. You are the entire ocean, in a drop. Also on Mon PM (2/22) a short lived tiny fetch of north winds produced 20 ft seas 650 nmiles north of Hawaii at 35.5N 159W aimed south. Wave Height. PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Chance of showers. Swell fading Mon (5/8) from 1.2 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Chance of rain 50 percent. Please enable JavaScript to access the following map views: All map types that you can enable here: Pacific-Ocean Colour Basemap, Greyscale Basemap, Precipitation, Pacific-Ocean Wind, Temperature, Cloud, Pacific-Ocean Significant Ocean Wave Height. Global-Pacific wave (swell) map for surfers, windsurfers and sailors showing open ocean wave size, wave period and wave energy. the afternoon. West Pacific Storm
Summer - Waist to chest high. http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/. My call is for 0.5" along much of the SB coast with some higher pockets; VC and LA coasts would run 0.25-0.5"; and OC and SD coasts should top out around 0.25". Symbols shown on the map: Pacific-Ocean Cities, Ski Resorts, Mountain Peaks, Pacific-Ocean Surf Breaks, Tide Forecasts, All snow, city, surf, tide forecasts, Pacific-Ocean Temperature Observations, Wind Observations, Weather Observations - new, Pacific-Ocean Wind Observations - new, Temperature Observations - new, Weather Observations, Pacific-Ocean Live Webcams. the week. Over the next 72 hours a trough is forecast developing over the Central South Pacific on Tues (5/2) being fed by 150 kt winds lifting northeast and then north on Wed (5/3) offering great support for gale development before starting to pinch off on Thurs (5/4) while moving east and out of the Southern CA swell window. Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated. Coastal waters from Florence Oregon to Point St. George California and westward 60 nm. NOAA declared La Nina dead. Swell should drop to chest max with fewer pluses Sunday the 7th and then fade Monday the 8th (waist to chest). Hi-res Overview: (4/29) Warming waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru and Ecuador with strong warming along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador. Swell W 5 to 6 ft. FRI Wind waves 3 to of more interest is swell pushing east originating from a broad system that developed just off the Kuril Islands Mon-Tues (2/22) producing 39 ft seas aimed east then dissipating before reaching the dateline. Within 120 nautical miles of F1: Poor visibility in showers. Also called 'Background' swell. Easing swells this week. NW ground swell increases Monday with a mix of wind swell, lasting for a couple days. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. Overall this indicates the demise of La Nina. High pressure is exiting to the east as a trough of low pressure pushes south from the Gulf of Alaska. More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry'). Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays, Sunday Apr. Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (2/25) building from 5.6 ft @ 18 secs at sunrise (10 ft) to 7.2-7.9 ft @ 17-18 secs late afternoon (13.0 ft). This is increasing the onshore flow, and we continue to have a strong thermal inversion over SoCal. Slight These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. Good odds for swell radiating northeast towards the US West Coast, Central America and South America. TUE On Wed AM (3/2) a broader gale is to be developing just west of the dateline with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building from 27 ft at 42N 164.5E aimed east.
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